Bosnia collapsing?
By AriRusila on Thursday, October 30 2008, 11:57 - Balkans - Permalink
Last week top level European politicians have awaken to reality concerning the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina, namely that this artificial creature made by Dayton agreement is starting to collapse. This in spite of hundreds of millions of euros which e.g. EU has thrown away to build some kind of multi-ethnical ideal. (Summary of Dayton Agreement here)
Dayton Agreement was made 1995 after bloody war (1992-95) had almost finished ethnical cleansings/transfer of populations so that it was possible to draw administrative boundaries according ethnical groups. The agreement split Bosnia into two semi-independent entities – the Serb Republic and the Muslim-Croat Federation and three ethnic groups – Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks – are trying to lead state together and separately. Entities are unitedby weak central institutions, administration is quite heavy loaded with some 170 ministers and whole system is supervised by international presence.
Dayton designer and former Bosnia administrator are worried
On 22nd Oct. 2008 the former United States diplomat Richard Holbrooke and former High Representative in Bosnia Paddy Ashdown published an article urging European Union and US leaders to reinforce their engagement in Bosnia and halt a new crisis which threatens to bring the country to collapse.
The two diplomats say that Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik has taken advantage of the weakness of constitutional state structures, fatigue and the international community’s saturation, as well as the inability of the EU to meet its own conditions, and over the course of the last two years has succeeded in destroying the majority of the real progress made in Bosnia-Hercegovina in the last 13 years."
On the other hand the two diplomats add that “Chairman of the Bosnian Presidency Haris Silajdžic has frequently made statement on the need to abolish the two entities that comprise Bosnia-Hercegovina, and the need to create an undivided country not made up of federal units.“ “Poisonous relations and clashes between the two of them are at the heart of the current crisis in Bosnia-Hercegovina,“ which is why “doubts and fears have revived that were the basis for the start of the war in 1992,“ states the text.
…as well EU and Nato
On 27th Oct. 2008 EU’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana said in Brussels that the EU has warned politicians in Bosnia they are jeopardising the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration with the heated nationalist rhetoric. “We are concerned about the rhetoric which is growing and this rhetoric cannot contribute to the objective of getting Bosnia and Herzegovina more engaged with the European Union and Euro-Atlantic institutions,”.
Solana met NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer at the regular NATO-EU meeting, while the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina was the main focus of discussions. The NATO chief expressed his concern about the heated statements by some politicians in the country. “The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is of course secure and stable but the political rhetoric leads to concern,” Scheffer said. “We will have to address and we will address,” he added.
Last week the EU Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn, said Bosnia has made “a significant step forward” by signing a key pre-membership deal called the Stabilisation and Association Agreement on June 16. “The EU could initial the Stabilisation and Association Agreement last December and sign it in June because the country's political leaders pulled together and reached consensus on the main conditions, particularly police reform. This proves that progress can be achieved and crises overcome, when the political will exists,”. “However, this consensus has since collapsed and reforms halted,” … “Nationalist rhetoric ahead of the October local elections was a factor in this deterioration. Yet, the country's political problems run much deeper.” Rehn said in his speech.
My view
The recent past of Bosnia-Herzegovina is violent and there was not only one brutal side – there was three of them. This past has its impact today and real truth behind successful propaganda about events of war 1992-95 is still unclear. (Note: same remarks about this one may find from my previous article “Opening Bosnian X-files”, check my Archives:Blog ).
The worries of top politicians have good base. It is not anymore dispute between Serbs and Bosniaks, this year has showed serious dissension between Bosniaks and Croats which may be related to rise of radical Islam in Balkans. (Note: I wrote a couple of articles about this earlier October, check my Archives:Blog).
One may have seen pictures where Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Bosnian Croats have been busy rioting again following the defeat of Croatia by Turkey in the Euro 2008 football match. The Bosniaks supported Turkey, the Croats Croatia. Meanwhile when Serbia plays Bosnia, Bosnian Serbs root for Serbia. This gives quite clear picture about national identity and multi-ethnic ideals – or lack of them. Can any country survive without some minimal mutual self-identification across its citizens as a whole? If the shared non-ethnic Bosnian identity is taking steps backwards does this not mean that this artificial western desk-drawer plan is doomed to fail? I am afraid so but maybe it is loss only for those top level designers not for local population.
More my articles about Balkan and Caucasus events one may find from my BalkanBlog .
AriRusila
Comments
I suggest some research of causes of the Bosnian war and some research of war. History didn't start with international community deciding to create "artifical" state. There is more at stake here than just pleasing nationalists, who btw might legalize results of ethnic cleansing and war crimes, and I think there's nobody sane who thinks that is a right solution.
bosnian catholics (bosnian croats) support Croatia in football
bosnian orthodox (bosnian serbs) support Serbia in football
Bosnian muslims (bosniaks) support Bosnia in football
Then, why are you implying that a bosnian muslim should support Croatia in football? You're not making sense. LOL
gottcha!!!!
;)
What ? my comment won't appear ?
Let's face it. Bosnia is a mini-Yugoslavia. In 1991 when Yugoslavia started to break up, people in Bosnia still loved Yugoslavia - hence they got the worst of the war. It's a mini Yugoslavia because you have all the dominating nationalities from former Yugoslavia living "together" in the same "country". If Yugoslavia didn't work, how can Bosnia? Let's end the Balkan conflict and draw borders based on nationalities. You know that EU saying "The sooner Serbia realizes that Kosovo is independent the better"...Well here is one for you EU "The sooner you realize that making borders based on ethnicity in the Balkans - the better"..It's your own creation!
^
no one is saying for bosnian muslims to support croatia over bosnia, but why bosnian muslims support turkey over croatia.
bosnian muslims have more in common with croats than they do with turks. the only thing bosnian muslims share with turks is the same religion.
bosnian muslims are racially and culturally similar to croats, and catholic croats live among bosnian muslims in bosnia-herzegovina, and croatia is BiH's neighbor. bosnia-herzegovina shares the longest border with croatia, than the other 2 contries it borders with (montenegro & serbia).
bosnian muslims and bosnian croats need to stop this bickering, and make peace with one another, so they can be brothers once again like they used to be.
thats what H.O.S. fought for
you shouldnt write about something you know nothng about it makes you look stupid.
To alex: I told that Bosinian muslims support Turkey, please read before writing.
To Rasidk: Artifical puppet states are useful in international politics as well with military presence (like Bondsteel in Kosovo). Sc. captured state - where state is captured by organised criminal groups - is useful for local stakeholders.
There is no such thing as a Bosniaks. They are either croats or serbs raped by the ottomans. A historical wrong must be corrected before there can ever be peace there. Bosnia is to be split between serbia and croatia. As far as radical islam do not worry give the croats and serbs a free hand. They will know what to do with them.
Bosnia in this state and this time has a little chance to survive. The concept of "multi-ethnic" society is essentially destroyed in the Balkans with the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. Why (mostly) Western international political bureaucrats think that Bosnia can be "small YU" is beyond my understanding.
The level of distrust is so immense that there's no EU neither American "stick" that can fix it. It's better to dissolve non-functional country in peace that prolong dissolution for another several years.
And I didn't even mention the case of Kosovo which was granted independence by the Western countries.
Bosnian catholics,serbs and muslims should support BOSNIA in football. If they dont they should consider moving. and hes saying that the bosnian muslims supported turkey instead of croatia because they are muslim while the croatians speak the same language and were once in the same country. it makes perfect sense.
Thank you for your important post. Please reconsider when you write that there were three brutal sides. It is easy to blame all sides, but sometimes one side is simply a victim. That is the case when a woman is raped; it was the case when Jews were murdered in the Holocaust; and it was the case when Bosnian Muslims were massacred and victimized in the 1992-1995 war. As a Christian who is working in Bosnia, I have observed Muslims who have suffered awful losses and yet who have gone to Serbians to invite them to live together in one a country - these Muslims exemplify Jesus's command "Love your enemy" - they are true Christians, I believe. Whereas the nominal Christians - Catholics and Orthodox - were too often haters of their enemy, contrary to Jesus's teaching. The truth will set us free. I encourage us to care for each other and embrace each other. Bosnia and Serbia and Croatia can work together to join the European Union and NATO.
I don't know what kind of literature you are reading, but I do recommend more research into the causes of the war in Bosnia. Not only books by Michael Sells, Norman Cigar, Mitja Velikonja, Radmila Radic, etc. but newer articles on Christoslavism and other main ideological factors that led to the Balkan wars, which was building up in the 1980ies.
Lets not forget that these three ethnic groups, and three religions, have been living together in relative peace and harmony for centuries before the second world war. Bosnia was a multiethnic country from middle ages and on. It can still be achieved today, just nationalistic ideologies, which was and is far most predominant with the Serbs, have to diminish their influence.
"The recent past of Bosnia-Herzegovina is violent and there was not only one brutal side – there was three of them."
War is always brutal, but we cannot be so naive to suggest that because two or three sides fight in a war that they are all equally to blame. When Bosnia voted for independence it was attacked by forces from outside the country sponsored by one of the biggest armies in Europe, the Yugoslav National Army. Henious atrocities were comitted right at the start of the war to achieve the war aim, that was and still is, to cleanse the land of non-Serbs. Then Serb forces lead and sponsored by that large army proceeded with the objective by in addtion to fighting, setting up death to slaughter civilians and rape camps.
Just to put it in perspective, in the war 80% of civilians deaths were Bosnian Muslims. Of Banja Luka's 15 mosques none were left - not even a single 500 year old brick; as opposed to Sarajevo with Orthodox, Catholic and Jewish places of worship side by side with mosques.
At the start of the war neither the Bosnian Muslims nor the Bosnian Croats had any heavy weaponry and had few light weapons. Only after recieving weapons and military help were the Muslims and Croats able to take back some of the 70% of the land taken by Serb forces. Dayton resulted in a 51/49% stalemate, which cemented the Serb state ideology. This "Greater Serbian State" has been talked about for more than 100 years.
Ari, don't be under any illusion, from the start of the war the Serb aim was to create a new ethnically clean Serb territory, by any means necessary. Dodik is just finishing the work of his ideological counterparts: Milosevic, Seselj, Karadzic and Plavsic; all of them tried for war crimes. Plavsic convicted, Karadzic and Seselj pending and Milosevic has a meeting with His Maker.
Bosnia is not working because the ideology of extreme nationalism that brought about Republika Srpska achieved its goal and the entity that it created still exists. Don't cloud the issue by talking about Islamic extremism. This is just a media soundbite which has no reality in Bosnia. Look who are the real extremists.
The Dayton plan is doomed to fail and in truth has never worked. Read the political rhetoric from the start of the conflict and you will find the Bosnian Muslims wishing to live together and the Bosnian Serbs looking for separation and willing to do anything to get it.
Ari, wake up and smell the Bosnian coffee....
What an idiotic, yet clynically cinical post... It is a loss for those who were raped, purged and "cleansed" from their homes, their land and property, their families killed and buried in mass grave which are yet to be identified... Only a complete idiot and/or weasel can now try to in effect try to rationalise that with some cartoonish, infantile poop talk about "three evil sides", basically equating the victims with their executors. Unfortunately for you and your quasintellectual masturbation in this post, it has all been documented in the Hague tribunal and elsewhere.
What an idiotic, yet clynically cinical post... It is a loss for those who were raped, purged and "cleansed" from their homes, their land and property, their families killed and buried in mass grave which are yet to be identified... Only a complete idiot and/or weasel can now try to in effect try to rationalise that with some cartoonish, infantile poop talk about "three evil sides", basically equating the victims with their executors. Unfortunately for you and your quasintellectual masturbation in this post, it has all been documented in the Hague tribunal and elsewhere.
To Adrius,
I still think that also bosnian muslims - as well other etnic groups - and their allies are guilty about brutalities during Bosnian war 92-95. There was widely spread pictures about mujahedeens keeping serb heads in their hands etc. Some 2000-3000 Serbs was killed only in Srebrenica region
To Adrius and Slavko.
I still keep my opinion that allthre sides were involved to brutalities - I did not claim who made most of them. About radical Islam I agree that Bosnian muslims were quite sekular, the most violent actions were made mujahedees and big part of them was outsiders. Also in public there were wide spread pictures (e.g. in WashingtonPost) about mujahedeens Serb heads in their hands as well confirmed strories about eye collections. Only in Srebrenica some 1.000-3.000 Serb civilians were murdered by muslims. Later these radical islamists have took ground in Kosovo and maybe also to some degree in Bosnia.
I think that during Karadzic trial we can have more multisided picture about events during Bosnian war when both prosecutor and defence have made their case.
The bottom line from my point of view will be the same as in headline - Bosnia is probably collapsing.
Ari Rusila, Thank you for your thoughtful reply - and also for introducing me to Slavko! I have invited Slavko to join our working group http://groups.yahoo.com/group/human... and you are also welcome!